Global Automakers Believe All Powertrains Would be Electrified to Some Degree by 2030, Finds New Report

Market Research Times / Lewes, Delaware / Delaware / US

The 21st century powertrain saw a new phenomenon with the development of the hybrid electric vehicle, debuted by Toyota in its Prius model in 1997. Modern 21st century powertrains are quite different from those of the 20th century, which were dominated by gasoline or diesel only. ‘Conventional’ powertrains consist of internal combustion engines, transmissions, and rudimentary control systems. They now share a market with ‘hybrid’ powertrains that were marketed and sold as fuel-efficient and environment-friendly alternatives – at a higher price. The hybrid electric vehicles, or HEVs, now include IC engines, batteries, transmissions, generator/motors and complex control systems. They started their commercial life marketed as separate products. They were draped in environment-friendly and fuel-efficient garb and badges to justify the higher price point for the added equipment.

Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks
Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks

That is beginning to change. Automakers have stated in open forums around the world that they believe many powertrains will be electrified to some degree by 2030, for a variety of reasons. Clearly, electrification is certain. The question is how much?

Emissions and fuel economy regulations required a defined test procedure to ensure they are being met and to ensure all vehicles were being judged equally.

This Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks report examines current trends in electrified powertrain development for light duty vehicles and makes educated projections of how those trends might evolve by 2025 to 2030. It is important to note that this report builds on an initial report published in June 2016. The intervening two years has seen a confirmation of some trends, elimination of others, and intensification of a few.

Key Questions, Uncertainties, and Trends 
What will profoundly affect the Consensus View, altering its projections about the various technologies? The author believes that there are really a few strategic questions, the answers to which will determine the near-term future of automotive powertrains.
1. What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations projected for 2021 through 2025 will remain as currently envisioned? If they change, in what direction will that be? (More stringent or less stringent.)
2. What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations, which have been relatively uniform in their vision worldwide, will drastically change that vision and separate into some countries regulating strictly in some regulating less strictly?
3. What is the likelihood that oil prices will remain volatile? What is the likelihood that they will return to the relatively low prices of 2016 or rise again? (A related question to this is: How important is fuel price to the pressures put on automakers?)
4. What is the likelihood that a significant technical disruptor will be introduced in the next few years, significant enough and early enough, to change the Consensus View by 2030, all other factors remaining equal?
5. What is the likelihood that a substantial number of consumers, say more than 17%, will become aware of and embrace HEV, PHEVs, or BEVs as alternatives to ICE driven vehicles, based on Total Cost of Ownership or some other reason, like Fun to Drive? 
6. What is the likelihood that in the Consensus View, the current trends in powertrain developments will achieve their goals if no technical disruptor emerge

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